I’m pasting below an extract from Mk Bhadrakumar’s article in The Cradle, “‘Swarming’ the US in West Asia, until it folds.” It’s the most encouraging analysis of the state in Syria that I’ve read for some years. Bhadrakumar sees US influence collapsing across the region and believes that exiting the region as quickly as possible will be crucial to Biden’s campaign for reelection later this year.
It would have been gratifying if the US had stopped stealing Syrian oil and left because they realised it was the right thing to do. Even so, America’s departure will lead to much joy and thanksgiving across Syria and around the Arab world, regardless of what moviates them.
The author of this article, Ambassador MK Bhadrakumar, was a career diplomat for three decades in the Indian Foreign Service with multi-year assignments in the former Soviet Union, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey.
Iran’s patience has run out over the US military presence in Syria and Iraq following the revival of ISIS with American support. Interestingly, Israel no longer abides by its “de-confliction” mechanism with Russia in Syria. Clearly, there is close US-Israeli cooperation in Syria and Iraq at the intelligence and operational level, which goes against Russian and Iranian interests. Needless to say, the backdrop of the imminent upgrade of the Russia-Iran strategic partnership also needs to be factored in here.
These developments are a vintage illustration of defensive deterrence. The Axis of Resistance turns out to be the principal instrument of peace for the issues of security that entangle the US and Iran. Clearly, there isn’t any method or any reasonable hope of convergence to this process, but, fortunately, the appearance of chaos in West Asia is deceiving.
Beyond the distractions of partisan argument and diplomatic ritual, one can detect the outlines of a practical solution to the Syrian stalemate that addresses the inherent security interests of the US and Iran that are embedded within an outer ring of US-China concord over the situation in West Asia.
Russia may seem an outlier for the present, but there is something in it for everyone, as the pullout of US troops opens the pathway to a Syrian settlement, which remains a top priority for Moscow and for Putin personally.
read Bhadrakumarfull’s full article here